Kohl's Stock Surges: What's Behind the Jump

Kohl's Stock Soars? Don't Drink the Kool-Aid Yet

Okay, so Kohl's stock jumped 21.5%. Big deal. The headline screams "Kohl's Beats Expectations!" and everyone's supposed to throw confetti. But let's get real for a second. Beating expectations when expectations are already subterranean ain't exactly a cause for popping champagne, is it? Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) Beats Q3 CY2025 Sales Expectations, Stock Jumps 21.5%

Digging Beneath the Hype

They're crowing about revenue hitting $3.58 billion, which beat analyst estimates. But here's the kicker: that's still a 3.6% drop year-on-year. So, they lost less money than predicted? That's the victory we're celebrating now? It's like saying you only crashed your car into one tree instead of two. Progress!

And Michael J. Bender, Kohl’s CEO, spouting nonsense about "delivering top-line and bottom-line performance ahead of our expectations." Translation: "We managed to slightly outperform our already dismal projections, so please keep investing so I can get another bonus." I mean, give me a break.

The real gem here is the "adjusted EPS" of $0.10 versus an expected loss of $0.17. Okay, that's something. But how much did they slash costs to get there? Layoffs? Reduced quality? Because "building on this momentum" usually means screwing over someone else, doesn't it?

Let's talk about "same-store sales." Down 1.7%. Better than last year's horrific 9.3% drop, sure, but still DOWN. This ain't a turnaround; it's damage control. And that "frictionless experience" he's talking about? Last time I was in a Kohl's, finding a sales associate felt like hunting for the Lost Ark. Offcourse, maybe I'm just unlucky.

The Long, Slow Decline

Kohl's has a market cap of $1.76 billion. That sounds like a lot, until you remember they're a national chain that's been around for decades. They're selling clothes, cosmetics, and home goods. Stuff people supposedly always need. So why are they struggling so damn much?

Their revenue over the last 12 months was $15.75 billion. That makes them "one of the larger companies" in retail. But as the fact sheet says, that's a double-edged sword. They've already saturated the market. To actually grow, they need to do something drastic. And "adjusting prices" or "leaning into foreign markets" sounds like consultant-speak for "we have no freakin' clue."

Sales dropped by 5.4% annually over the last three years. That's not a blip; that's a trend. They haven't opened many new stores, and existing stores are bleeding customers. What's the plan here? More partnerships with tired brands? More Kohl's Cash that expires before you can use it?

Honestly, it feels like they're rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

The Analyst's Take (and Why I Don't Trust It)

I saw one analyst crowing that shares are "now higher than they were a year ago and have more than tripled from their lows." Okay, congrats on buying low and selling high. But that doesn't mean Kohl's is suddenly a great company. It means you timed the market. Which, let's be real, is mostly luck.

And this analyst, who claims to make "contrarian bets," conveniently discloses that they have no position in Kohl's and no plans to initiate one. So, they're pumping the stock without putting their own money on the line? How convenient.

So, What's the Real Story?

Kohl's is still a mess, and a slightly less messy mess is still a mess. They're managing to squeeze out a tiny profit by cutting costs and lowering expectations. But until they actually start growing sales and attracting new customers, this whole "turnaround" is just a mirage. I ain't buying it, and neither should you.