November Options: The $15 Billion Data Trap - Debates Heat Up

The end of November 2025 is shaping up to be a nail-biter for crypto traders. Over $16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire on Deribit. That's a hefty sum, even by crypto's standards, and it dwarfs last week’s $6 billion expiry. The big question is: will this be the catalyst for the much-hoped-for "Santa rally," or will it send prices tumbling?

Bitcoin Options: Bullish Bets vs. Capped Upside

Decoding the Options Data Let's dive into the data. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $91,389, while the "max pain" point – the strike price where option holders stand to lose the most – sits at $100,000. This discrepancy (a difference of over $8,600) suggests a bullish leaning, but it’s not quite that simple. Historically, Bitcoin's price tends to gravitate towards the max pain zone as expiry approaches. This is due to market makers hedging their positions. This time, 145,482 Bitcoin contracts will be closing, representing a notional value of $13.28 billion. The put-to-call ratio, currently at 0.54, confirms that more traders are betting on gains than losses. However, Deribit data reveals a call open interest of 94,539 contracts, exceeding put open interest at 50,943. It’s a mixed bag, to say the least. Deribit analysts point out that the recent market pullback – a 35% drop from $126,000 – influenced trader positioning. Put longs took profits around $81,000-$82,000, while maintaining protection with 80-85k strikes. But the real standout trade, according to Deribit, is a bullish end-of-year December call condor, targeting a range between $100,000 and $118,000. The initial premium was around $6.5 million. The buyer is aiming for $100k+ by December 26, with an ideal settlement between $106k and $112k, offering a potential 10:1 payoff. Such aggressive positioning suggests that a segment of traders is still optimistic about a strong December rebound, despite the recent correction. At the same time, others have been actively capping upside through overwriting strategies.

Ethereum: Less Extreme, But Still in the Fray

Ethereum's Role in the Equation Ethereum, currently trading at $3,014, also has a significant expiry event, with a max pain level of $3,400. There are 387,010 calls open versus 187,198 puts, totaling 574,208 contracts. ETH options account for $1.73 billion in notional value, making it the second-largest component of today's expiry. The put–call ratio is 0.48. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum's positioning appears less extreme, with a lighter downside skew and a more evenly distributed open interest across major strikes. The big question is whether Bitcoin volatility will spill over into the broader market and affect Ethereum. With billions in open interest unwinding, liquidity conditions could shift rapidly for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. If spot prices move towards max pain levels, market makers may try to dampen the effects. Conversely, if volatility spikes, these expiries could act as accelerants. I've looked at hundreds of these reports, and the sheer volume of open interest being unwound simultaneously is genuinely concerning. It's like a pressure cooker about to release steam, and nobody knows which direction it'll blow. Fleet Asset Management Group (FLAMGP), in a recent statement, emphasized the importance of risk management in this environment. They highlighted their AI-based risk monitoring system (FAMG 3.0), which includes real-time market monitoring, volatility modeling, and automated stop-loss protocols. It's a sensible approach, given the uncertainty. More information on their risk management approach can be found in FLAMGP Provides Market Analysis and Outlines Institutional Risk-Management Approach. Is Santa Coming, or Did He Get Lost? The data paints a picture of cautious optimism, tinged with a healthy dose of fear. While some traders are making bold bets on a year-end rally, others are hedging their positions and bracing for volatility. It's a classic "wait and see" scenario, but with billions of dollars on the line, the stakes are higher than ever. Whether this options expiry triggers a Santa rally or a further correction remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: it's going to be a wild ride.